empty
01.04.2025 11:37 AM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/JPY pair is struggling to benefit from a slight intraday upward movement, especially amid expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at a faster pace. However, uncertainty surrounding potential retaliatory tariffs from President Trump creates additional risks for the Japanese economy, which could prompt the Bank of Japan to stick to its current policy stance.

Positive sentiment in equity markets and moderate dollar strength are also contributing to the pair hovering near the psychological level of 150.00. According to Tankan index data, Japanese companies have raised their inflation forecasts for the next one, three, and five years. Along with strong consumer inflation figures from Tokyo, this reinforces the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan—creating a divergence with the Federal Reserve's expected path of rate cuts. As a result, the narrowing rate differential between Japan and the U.S. supports the yen, capping USD/JPY's upside potential.

From a technical standpoint, a break below the lower boundary of the multi-week ascending trend channel could indeed be seen as a bearish signal.

However, the current neutral positioning of oscillators on the daily chart suggests caution before opening short positions. A drop below 149.55 would find support near the round level of 149.00. The next support level may stop USD/JPY around 148.70. Further selling would resume the negative bias that has been developing over the past three months.

On the other hand, a breakout above 150.25 would open the path to higher levels such as 150.80 and even 151.00. Sustained strength beyond this zone would shift the bias in favor of the bulls, potentially pushing the pair toward the next round level of 152.00 and beyond.

To identify new trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of key U.S. economic data, such as the JOLTS job openings report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EU–US Trade Deal. Part 2

On Monday, I got the impression that very few people in Europe knew what concessions von der Leyen was about to make. The American side of the negotiation was likely

Chin Zhao 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EU–US Trade Deal. Part 1

Four days before August 1 — the final deadline for the negotiations — the European Union and the United States announced the signing of a trade agreement. This deal

Chin Zhao 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Reversal?

"A celebration with tears in our eyes" — that's perhaps the most accurate way to describe the European reaction to the trade agreement signed between the U.S

Irina Manzenko 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Will the Dollar Regain Its Former Glory?

Everything new is well-forgotten. At the end of 2024, bearish forecasts for EUR/USD were widespread. The argument was that White House tariffs would slow eurozone GDP while accelerating inflation

Marek Petkovich 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin Sheds Excess Baggage

Trends give way to consolidations. Consolidations pave the way for new trends. That's the nature of the market. And Bitcoin is no exception. The inability of the bulls to resume

Marek Petkovich 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

The EU–US Deal Is a Disaster for the European Economy

The euro quickly resumed its decline after a morning rally during Asian trading. Apparently, investors have come to realize that the trade deal between

Jakub Novak 19:10 2025-07-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the strengthening U.S. dollar. News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, reached on Sunday, along with

Irina Yanina 18:51 2025-07-28 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure for the third consecutive day, with the NZD/USD pair trading below the key 0.6000 level and attempting to hold near the 0.5975 support

Irina Yanina 12:15 2025-07-28 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attempting a recovery despite the broader strength of the U.S. dollar, which is undermining the global rebound in the precious metal. U.S. President Donald Trump and European

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Yen Continues to Weaken

The annual inflation rate in Tokyo declined from 3.1% in June to 2.9% in July. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, also slowed from 3.1% to 2.9% year-over-year

Kuvat Raharjo 09:56 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.