empty
02.01.2024 01:02 PM
Deteriorating US labor market will stimulate risk appetite and globally weaken dollar

Global markets open today, albeit not completely. Exchanges in Europe and the US have resumed operations, while the holidays continue in other regions.

Looking at the overall dynamics, investors may continue the bullish momentum noted at the end of last year. The main driver of this will be the expected easing of interest rates by the Fed and other global central banks.

Upcoming economic data, especially those related to the US labor market, will also affect the market's direction. ADP's report on the number of new jobs, which forecasts say will increase to 113,000 in December compared to 103,000 in November, could lead to a decline in dollar because the figure remains very low and the labor market needs a stable number above 200,000. Similarly, although a slight decrease in the number of jobless claims, from 218,000 to 215,000, may be seen, the total number remains above 200,000.

Official data from the US Department of Labor will also attract attention as it will show changes in employment in December, the number of new jobs, the average length of the workweek, and the average hourly earnings. For the number of new jobs, a decrease in growth from 199,000 to 163,000 may occur. The unemployment rate may slightly rise from 3.7% to 3.8%, while the average length of the workweek may remain at 34.4 hours. Hourly earnings may decrease from 0.4% to 0.3%.

A worsening situation in the labor market will be a strong signal for the purchase of risk assets and the weakening of dollar. Such a piece of news can be interpreted by the Fed as an important reason to start lowering interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.

Forecasts for today:

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

EUR/USD:

The pair found support at the level of 1.1000. The worsening situation in the US labor market, as well as the likely resumption of inflation growth in the Eurozone, could be the basis for growth to 1.1130.

GBP/USD

The pair traded at 1.2700. Weakening dollar due to a bleak picture in the US labor market may lead to an increase to 1.2825.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

華爾街讓白宮保持規矩

市場對任何利好消息的敏感度正在增加,但其最佳時期已經過去。以美國股票占MSCI所有國家世界指數的百分比來看,其價值在十二月份達到峰值。

Marek Petkovich 11:42 2025-04-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY. 分析與預測

儘管面臨一定的逆風,日元仍維持看漲態勢,同時由於全球風險意願減弱,提高了對避險資產的需求,因此日元備受關注。 對美中貿易衝突快速解決的希望減少,加上對日本可能與美國達成協議的猜測,和對日本銀行可能加息的期待,都支持了對日元的需求。

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-04-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD:分析與預測

黃金顯示出積極的動能,試圖保持在$3300水平之上,顯示出投資者對這個傳統避險資產的興趣不斷增長。 美中貿易關係的不確定性—從美國財政部長Scott Bessent昨天的言論中凸顯出來—表明當前的僵局可能會比預期持續更久。

Irina Yanina 11:33 2025-04-24 UTC+2

特朗普正在玩一個大家都輸的遊戲

根據歐洲央行的一位高級官員表示,唐納·川普總統將全世界捲入了一場大眾皆輸的遊戲——這指的是他的貿易政策,該政策建立在有缺陷的經濟理論上。 歐洲央行管理委員會成員Francois Villeroy de Galhau在紐約發表演講時表示:「川普的貿易政策正在減緩經濟增長,包括美國在內,並威脅到金融穩定。

Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-04-24 UTC+2

特朗普迫切需要與中國達成交易

美國總統唐納·川普表示,在任何貿易談判中,他計劃對中國保持非常「禮貌」的態度,並且如果兩國能達成協議,關稅將會降低。此言論後,美國美元兌多數主要貨幣驟然上漲。

Jakub Novak 11:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2

美聯儲需要更多時間評估情況

當唐納·川普試圖與中國達成共識之時,聯邦儲備理事會委員Adriana Kugler表示,目前的關稅政策可能對物價造成上行壓力,其對經濟的影響或比先前預期的更為顯著。 Kugler強調,她支持保持借貸成本不變,並將繼續這樣做,直到通脹風險消退以及經濟活動和就業顯現穩定為止。

Jakub Novak 10:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

鮑威爾可以安穩入睡了

市場出現漲勢,美元對歐元和其他風險資產走強,原因是美國總統唐納德·特朗普表示,儘管他對中央銀行沒有更積極地降低利率行動感到失望,但他無意解僱聯邦儲備主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾。特朗普對記者說:「絕不會解僱他。

Jakub Novak 09:59 2025-04-24 UTC+2

市場可能已經渡過其下跌的底部(EUR/USD 和 GBP/USD 的持續下跌仍有可能)

儘管市場的焦點仍然集中在貿易戰上,特別是美國與中國之間的貿易戰,但最新的經濟數據表明,歐美先進經濟體存在持續的結構性問題。 在美國財政部部長Scott Bessent發表了對華盛頓與北京貿易緊張局勢緩和的希望後,並且唐納德·特朗普保證無意解除聯準會主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的職務後,市場興奮地以兩天的反彈做出回應。

Pati Gani 09:38 2025-04-24 UTC+2

4月24日需要關注什麼?新手必看的基本事件解讀

週四預計只有少數宏觀經濟事件發布,但昨天的發展已經顯示出市場開始忽視大部分的數據發布。只有少數報告能夠被幸運地納入市場定價。

Paolo Greco 06:05 2025-04-24 UTC+2

英鎊/美元概況 – 4月24日:未遂?就隨它去吧...

週三,英鎊/美元貨幣對成功避免了大幅下跌,儘管在此之前,看起來似乎已經開始下跌趨勢。但市場迅速反彈,認識到基本背景並沒有發生改變。

Paolo Greco 03:16 2025-04-24 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.