Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0963 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The Eurozone data did not impress traders, and now the focus will shift to the second half of the day when FOMC representatives Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari will speak. A cautious tone from policymakers following recent U.S. labor market data is likely to lead to a new sell-off of the euro and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar; thus, I do not expect strong growth of the pair during the U.S. session. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today when the price reaches around 1.0994 (the green line on the chart), aiming for growth to the level of 1.1028. At point 1.1028, I will exit the market and also sell euros back in anticipation of a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Strong upward movement of the euro today is unlikely. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting its upward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0963 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth towards the target levels of 1.0994 and 1.1028.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell euros after the price reaches the level of 1.0963 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0923, where I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of tough comments from FOMC representatives. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0994 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to the target levels of 1.0963 and 1.0923.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or secure profits yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or secure profits yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.