empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
17.03.2025 09:52 AM
Dollar Sells Off, Recession Threat Grows, S&P 500 Index Risks a Major Collapse
Open trading account Open demo account

The dollar sell-off continues without signs of slowing down. According to the CFTC report, the net long position on the USD decreased by another $4.6 billion over the week, reaching $4.9 billion—the lowest level in 21 weeks. The euro contributes the most to this decline, followed by the pound, while changes in other currencies remain minimal.

This image is no longer relevant

On Friday, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed a sharp drop in consumer confidence, falling 6.8 points to 57.9—the lowest level since the 2022 crisis. Considering the index also declined in February and January, the three-month drop totals 16.1 points, marking the steepest decline since May 2020.

The threat of a recession has suddenly become highly relevant. The U.S. economy grew steadily recently, with GDP expanding by 2.5% year-over-year in Q4 of last year. However, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now projects a 2.4% contraction for the current quarter. This decline comes despite statements from Federal Reserve Chair Powell last week, who claimed that the U.S. economy continues to grow steadily. Markets have reacted extremely negatively to Trump's abrupt tariff policy moves.

The Fed is set to hold another meeting this week, and the market expects interest rates to remain unchanged. Overall, three rate cuts are anticipated this year. At the same time, markets are wary of recession risks and rising inflation. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in March—the highest since November 2022—while long-term expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%.

The dollar remains under pressure, particularly against the yen and European currencies.

The U.S. stock market sell-off continues. Just a few weeks ago, there was potential for the S&P 500 to rise to 6,220. However, disappointment over the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies, recession fears, and inflation risks—essentially, the threat of stagflation—has drastically worsened the outlook.

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, we considered the S&P 500's decline a correction, expecting support around 5,660 but also warning of a much deeper drop to 5,270. Over the past week, conditions have deteriorated, with the S&P 500 falling to 5,503—the lowest level since September—and the probability of a further collapse has increased. The scenario is becoming increasingly bearish, with a possible rebound meeting resistance at 5,770, where another bearish impulse could form. The primary scenario now favors further declines to 5,090.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
The Outlook for the Japanese Yen Remains Confidently Bullish The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and the market reacted neutrally, as this outcome was widely expected. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the risk
Kuvat Raharjo
00:46 2025-03-21 +02:00
1015
Fundamental analysis
The Dollar Takes Back Its Own Markets shoot first and ask questions later. Upon hearing Jerome Powell's assurance that the Federal Reserve had everything under control and that there would be no recession, U.S. stock indices
Marek Petkovich
00:45 2025-03-21 +02:00
1030
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Outlook for the Japanese Yen Remains Confidently Bullish

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and the market reacted neutrally, as this outcome was widely expected. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the risk
Kuvat Raharjo 23:46 2025-03-20 UTC+2

The Dollar Takes Back Its Own

Markets shoot first and ask questions later. Upon hearing Jerome Powell's assurance that the Federal Reserve had everything under control and that there would be no recession, U.S. stock indices
Marek Petkovich 23:45 2025-03-20 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is experiencing a slight decline after reaching a new all-time high, remaining in a defensive stance. Currently, bullish traders are exercising caution, as indicated by overbought conditions
Irina Yanina 10:29 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Fed's message music to bulls' ears

The Fed is not throwing a lifeline to the S&P 500, but does it need one? Lifelines are for those drowning, while the market is merely spooked by a fleeting
Marek Petkovich 09:05 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Markets Are Stuck in a Vicious Circle with No Exit in Sight (Potential Decline for Bitcoin and Gold Prices)

The markets are currently experiencing significant shock due to a prevailing negative sentiment that looms over them like a heavy burden, with no resolution in sight. Given this situation
Pati Gani 08:23 2025-03-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, primarily in the UK. Key reports will include the unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployed individuals, and average wages
Paolo Greco 07:15 2025-03-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 20: Bank of England Vote May Cool Bullish Sentiment

The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday, considering the evening movements. As a reminder, we are not analyzing the results of the Federal Reserve meeting
Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 20: The Euro Holds a Strong Leadership Position

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback but failed to consolidate below the moving average line. As per tradition, we will not analyze the outcome
Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/JPY: Mixed Outcomes of the Bank of Japan's March Meeting and Germany's "Debt Brake" Reform

The Bank of Japan has concluded its March policy meeting, delivering the most anticipated baseline scenario—keeping all monetary policy parameters unchanged. Market participants closely followed the statements of BOJ Governor
Irina Manzenko 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Euro Hits the Ceiling

Bets are now closed, ladies and gentlemen! Many have already played out. The EUR/USD's hesitation to rise following the Bundestag's approval of Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus package indicates that this
Marek Petkovich 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--4
Forecast for GBP/USD on March 20, 2025
11:36 2025-03-20
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:08 2025-03-20
Forecast
Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:07 2025-03-20
Forecast
Relevance up to 04:00 UTC--4
XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast
11:29 2025-03-20
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 02:00 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:07 2025-03-20
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.