विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 28.02.2023

28.02.2023 11:44 PM

Bitcoin: further scenario depends on the month's close

Bitcoin is holding steady above the $22,756 support level, maintaining a margin of advance to the nearest resistance of $25,400. As long as it remains in an uptrend, bullish sentiment remains relevant. However, current resistance stands in the way of new momentum, which keeps market participants waiting.

What could cause a deeper correction

Arthur Hayes, Co-Founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, has warned that he believes a massive cryptocurrency price correction is coming, but noted that after it there could be a sustained bull run.

Hayes believes that Bitcoin and other risk assets are likely to undergo a massive correction in the near future as a massive amount of liquidity exits the market.

Moreover, Hayes noted that the U.S. is expected to raise its debt ceiling this year and issue $1.1 to $1.2 trillion in Treasury bonds to fund the 2023 USG Federal Deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office estimates would be around those figures.

Hayes also mentioned that as the Treasury sells off debt, the Federal Reserve remains committed to reducing its holdings in U.S. Treasuries by $100 billion per month, which he says poses a threat to risky assets as it drains the market of significant liquidity.

According to the expert, the Treasury's flood of debt into the market, coupled with the Federal Reserve's mixed messaging, has created an environment of uncertainty and caution for investors.

He believes the Treasury General Account (TGA) is an important indicator to watch, as it will signal when the government has fully drawn down its cash balance and is nearing the debt ceiling.

While the CEO of BitMEX acknowledged the potential for the cryptocurrency to break the $20,000 mark, he believes that a further decline is likely. Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Bitcoin, particularly in light of the response from monetary and fiscal authorities during times of economic distress.

Hayes believes that if there is another economic downturn, governments will inject money into the economy and print more currency, which will further increase the value of Bitcoin.

Watch the month's close

February is the second bullish month for Bitcoin, and it's close will determine the cryptocurrency's future direction. Thus, a trader under the pseudonym DonAlt emphasizes that a decisive moment for markets is coming, as the monthly closing of BTC is approaching.

The trader bought Bitcoin's November bottom at $16,000, sold its recent $25,000 top and rebought at $23,000.

He says BTC is on the verge of closing above monthly resistance at $23,291, which would signal BTC's 2023 rally is not over yet.

DonAlt says he reentered the market because of intense fear of missing out, and because his bullish view on BTC remained intact as it approached short-term bullish invalidation at $23,000.

If Bitcoin once again dips below $23,000 and approaches a crucial area of short-term support at around $22,500 – the analyst says traders should be extremely cautious.

"We got a little bit of a pullback to, in my opinion, the best support in that area [at around $23,000]. If it starts breaking [down], I think it makes sense to be cautious because then we're running into an area where we're not making higher lows anymore and we're coming back into these old ranges [below $22,500]."

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