In my morning forecast, I noted the level of 1.0979 and planned to make decisions based on that level. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and the formation of a false breakout around 1.0979 provided a good entry point for selling the euro, resulting in a drop of more than 20 points. The technical picture remained unchanged for the second half of the day.

To open long positions in EUR/USD:

Data from the Eurozone in the first half of the day was ignored, which was expected. During the U.S. session, there will only be speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari, which may help the dollar regain the bullish momentum it had on Friday. Therefore, I will be extremely cautious with buying decisions. I plan to act according to the morning scenario: a false breakout around 1.0952 will be a suitable condition to increase long positions, opening the way to the level of 1.0979, which has been tested multiple times today. A breakout and a retest of this range, supported by soft comments from Federal Reserve representatives, will confirm the right entry point for buying, with a target of updating 1.1011, allowing buyers to recover a bit after Friday's decline. The furthest target will be the high of 1.1047, where I will realize profits. If EUR/USD continues to decline and there is no activity around 1.0952 in the second half of the day, which is more likely, the pressure on the euro will remain. In this case, I will only consider entering after observing a false breakout around the next support level of 1.0916. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0884 with a target of an upward correction of 30-35 points intraday.

To open short positions in EUR/USD:

It is evident that sellers maintain control over the market, successfully making their presence felt in the first half of the day around 1.0979. Another false breakout there after the speeches from Federal Reserve representatives will provide a good entry point to open new short positions with a prospect of declining to the support level of 1.0952, which was missed today by just a couple of points. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from below, will be another suitable selling option with movement toward the 1.0916 level, further strengthening the bearish market. I expect to see more active buying only there. The furthest target will be the level of 1.0884, where I will realize profits. If EUR/USD moves up in the second half of the day and there are no bears at 1.0979—this level has already been tested once today—buyers will have the opportunity for a slight strengthening of the pair. In this case, I will postpone selling until the next resistance test at 1.1011, where the moving averages indicate a bearish trend. I will also sell there, but only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1047 with a target of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 24, there was a slight increase in long and short positions, which allowed the balance of power to remain on the side of buyers of risky assets. It is evident that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 0.5% will continue to attract new buyers to the euro market and force selling of the dollar, as the chances of more aggressive policy easing in November are still high. How the Fed proceeds will depend on labor market data, which will be released in large quantities in the near future. I will rely on that when building my strategy for the euro. However, this does not negate the medium-term upward trend for the pair, and the lower the pair goes, the more attractive it becomes for buying. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,514 to 187,795, while short non-commercial positions rose by 3,462 to 116,097. As a result, the gap between long and short positions increased by 1,960.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0970 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average: determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average: determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
• Non-commercial traders: speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions: represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.