Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 159.94 price occurred at a moment when the MACD had moved significantly upwards from the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair—especially as trading was near the annual maximum. For this reason, I refrained from buying the dollar and missed a good upward movement. In the second half of the day, apart from data on home sales volume in the primary market in the US, there is nothing else significant, so dollar buyers may face some difficulties in renewing the next annual highs. There are no scheduled speeches by Federal Reserve representatives either, but anything can happen, so it's important to keep abreast of the news background. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Signal to Buy

Scenario №1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 160.47 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the level of 160.89 (thicker green line on the chart). At 160.89, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 points in the reverse direction from the level). Expectations for the pair's rise today depend on the continuation of the upward trend, especially after very strong data from the US. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario №2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.14, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise towards the opposite levels of 160.47 and 160.89.

Signal to Sell

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after it reaches the level of 160.14 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 159.65, where I will exit my sell positions and open buy positions immediately (expecting a move of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a failed attempt to reach the daily high and weak statistics from the US. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 160.47, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 160.14 and 159.65.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for day traders.