Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 148.35 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair only fell by 20 points, and a larger sell-off did not materialize. In the second half of the day, all attention will be on the speeches from representatives of the Federal Reserve. FOMC member Michelle Bowman and FOMC member Neel Kashkari will give interviews that may shed light on future Fed policy—especially after Friday's labor market data, which triggered a strong rise in the dollar. A cautious position from policymakers will pave the way for USD/JPY to move northward. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 148.35 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 148.99 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.99, I will exit my buys and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Growth in the pair today can only be expected after a firm position from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 147.85 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposing levels of 148.35 and 148.99.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 147.85 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 147.29, where I will exit my sales and also open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of a soft position from Fed representatives. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 148.35 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposing levels of 147.85 and 147.29.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: estimated price where one can set Take Profit or independently secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: estimated price where one can set Take Profit or independently secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, it's necessary to have a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.