empty
11.03.2025 01:17 AM
USD/JPY: The Yen Opens New Price Horizons

The dollar-yen pair continues to be affected by the general decline of the greenback and rising hawkish sentiment surrounding potential policy moves by the Bank of Japan. On Monday, USD/JPY bears tested the 147.00 support level, which aligns with the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily (D1) timeframe. Last week, traders attempted to breach this price barrier but retreated, with Friday's trading session closing at 148.04. On Monday, there was another attempt to break through the 146 level. Given the current fundamental backdrop, USD/JPY buyers face little chance of resisting the sellers' momentum.

This image is no longer relevant

The price movement in the market is primarily influenced by data from China. Currently, the yen is experiencing high demand as a safe-haven asset due to increasing risk-off sentiment. Over the weekend, disappointing inflation growth data from China was released. The figures not only fell into the "red zone" but also recorded a decline into negative territory for the first time since January of last year. According to the data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased to -0.7% in February, compared to the forecast of -0.4%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also missed expectations, coming in at -2.2%, while most experts had predicted -2.0%. Deflation in the industrial sector has now persisted for 27 consecutive months. In summary, the data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer inflation for February and a continued decrease in industrial goods prices.

Another factor contributing to the selling pressure on USD/JPY is the hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. In particular, the Bank's Deputy Governor, Shinichi Uchida, stated that if the central bank's forecasts for economic activity and price dynamics are confirmed, it will "accordingly continue to raise interest rates and adjust the degree of monetary policy regulation." While Uchida ruled out a rate hike at the March meeting, he clearly suggested that the next round of monetary tightening is likely to occur soon. He also expressed confidence that Japan's economy "will continue to grow at a pace above its potential growth rate."

Japan's final GDP growth data in the fourth quarter will be released on March 11. According to forecasts, the final estimate will match the initial one. Japan's GDP grew by 0.7% quarterly and by 2.8% year-over-year. For USD/JPY sellers, it is important that the report meets or exceeds expectations, as this would increase the likelihood of another rate hike by the BOJ in May or June.

In any case, the BOJ is expected to wait for the results of the "spring wage offensive" (Shunto), which refers to wage negotiations between labor unions and employers. Japan's largest trade union, Rengo, demands a wage increase of more than 6% for the first time in 32 years, driven by labor shortages and rising inflation.

The next BOJ meeting is scheduled for next week (March 18-19), followed by another on May 1. By the May meeting, the central bank will have more data on CPI trends and the outcome of wage negotiations, which could play a decisive role. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated after the January meeting that he is prepared to continue raising interest rates "if wage growth supports consumption and the ability of companies to raise prices."

Meanwhile, dovish expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions are increasing. Although traders remain confident that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the March meeting, the probability of a rate cut in May is now estimated at 50/50. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the June meeting has risen to 85%.

The dollar struggles to find support amid the strengthening dovish sentiment, Donald Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. data (nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, consumer confidence, and the ISM manufacturing index).

As a result, the fundamental backdrop for USD/JPY favors further price declines. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the pair trades between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and below all Ichimoku indicator lines, forming a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal. Short positions would be advisable if USD/JPY bears consolidate below the 147.00 support level (the lower Bollinger Bands line on D1). The next target for downward movement is 146.50 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on W1). The main target is 145.00 (the Kijun-sen line on the MN timeframe).

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. La inflación en Tokio se acelera, pero el yen sigue siendo vulnerable

El informe publicado hoy sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en la capital de Japón resultó estar en la "zona verde". La publicación permitió a los vendedores del par usd/jpy

Irina Manzenko 12:25 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 28 de marzo. La libra no tuvo tiempo de caer, pero volvió a subir.

El par de divisas GBP/USD volvió a cotizarse al alza el jueves, aunque hace unos días comenzó una especie de corrección bajista. El mercado incluso reaccionó a un informe débil

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. 28 de marzo. A Donald Trump le gusta hacer sorpresas.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantuvo una inclinación bajista durante el jueves, pero se negoció al alza durante el día. La volatilidad volvió a ser baja, lo que indica

Paolo Greco 07:24 2025-03-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. El yen se devalua a la espera del informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI

El par usd/jpy mantiene el potencial de un mayor crecimiento. El informe sobre el crecimiento del TCPI, que se publicará el viernes, o bien reforzará la tendencia alcista, o provocará

Irina Manzenko 12:13 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Donald Trump volvió a confundir a todos

Ayer, el presidente de EE.UU., Donald Trump, declaró que planea una serie de excepciones a su amplia propuesta de aranceles, lo que se convirtió en la última insinuación velada sobre

Jakub Novak 08:45 2025-03-26 UTC+2

El jefe del Banco de Inglaterra contra los aranceles y a favor del desarrollo de la IA

La intervención de ayer del gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Andrew Bailey, solo abordó parcialmente la economía del Reino Unido y sus perspectivas. Hablando durante una conferencia en la Universidad

Jakub Novak 08:17 2025-03-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Una semana importante para la libra

La libra espera acontecimientos importantes y significativos. El miércoles se publicará el informe clave sobre el crecimiento de la inflación en el Reino Unido, así como la intervención

Irina Manzenko 12:22 2025-03-24 UTC+2

El ataque a la estación de medición de gas Sudzha solo provocó un aumento temporal de los precios

Los precios del gas natural en Europa registraron un fuerte repunte debido a un ataque contra una estación de bombeo inactiva en la región de Kursk, Rusia. Según

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:29 2025-03-24 UTC+2

Los mercados atrapados en un círculo vicioso sin salida por ahora (posible caída del Bitcoin y del precio del oro)

Los mercados están en estado de confusión debido a la enorme cantidad de noticias negativas que se ciernen sobre ellos sin un final claro a la vista. En este contexto

Pati Gani 11:13 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 17 de marzo. El mercado se ha dormido, la economía no le interesa a nadie.

El par de divisas GBP/USD el viernes "murió" definitivamente. En la ilustración a continuación se puede ver claramente que la volatilidad fue bastante alta en los primeros tres días

Paolo Greco 07:03 2025-03-17 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.