Forex Analysis & Reviews: 26.01.2022

26.01.2022 07:39 PM

Indonesia bans cryptocurrency transactions and markets await Fed meeting results

The cryptocurrency market followed stock markets and began to strengthen near the local bottom. The capitalization of digital assets has been growing for the third day in a row. Over the past 24 hours, crypto-assets rose by 3%, due to which the total value of the market increased to $1.7 trillion. Meanwhile, governments are not particularly interested in the current situation and determine their attitude to the cryptocurrency market in the long term.

Everyone expected a complete ban of digital assets by the Central Bank of Russia, but Indonesia decided to get ahead and announced a number of significant bans related to cryptocurrencies in the country. The regulator said that from now on, financial companies are prohibited from conducting transactions with cryptocurrencies. Indonesia's Financial Services Authority noted that the country saw a surge in cryptocurrency activity in 2021. Total trading volumes were as high as $60 billion.

In this context, the regulator did not completely ban a significant part of state revenues and allowed the trading of digital assets on a commodity exchange. In addition, an exchange exclusively for cryptocurrency trading regulated by the state is expected to launch in the first quarter of 2022. Indonesia has opted for a compromise and has significantly increased the state's influence in the cryptocurrency industry.

The Russian Federation stated that it did not plan to completely ban cryptocurrencies. Instead, legal mechanisms will be developed for legal transactions with digital assets and their taxation. The country's Ministry of Finance said that controlling the cryptocurrency industry would be a more effective protection for citizens than their complete ban. It is reported that Kazan may become a testing ground for the development of basic mechanisms to regulate cryptocurrencies. The bill is not expected before the fall of 2022, and therefore the situation with cryptocurrencies will continue to unfold in the near future.

In the meantime, the market has completely ignored such news and is closely watching the immediate aftermath of the Fed's tapering of the QE program. At the beginning of 2022, stock markets started falling amid tightening of the Fed's monetary policy to fight inflation. The Fed meeting and Chairman Powell's press conference are being held tonight. The market is waiting for the timing of the stimulus program winding down and the key rate hike. According to preliminary data, the rate hike is expected in spring, April, or May, and during this period a massive correction of the crypto market may begin. Market participants also expect a cessation of buybacks and a reduction in balance sheets.

The Fed chairman's statement is likely to determine the sentiment of the stock and crypto markets for the first and second quarters. If Powell's rhetoric is not so pessimistic, the market may expect growth momentum. In case of even more negative forecasts, technical analysis of financial instruments may require revision. In case the Fed's statements remain as expected, the situation will not change considerably, as it is already embedded in the price of indices and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin follows stock indices, but in the near future, I expect a decrease in correlation and differentiation of investment approach after the results of the Fed meeting.